The EU internal enlargement: elections in Flanders, the Scottish referendum and polls for elections in Catalonia

Author: Xavier Fernández-i-Marín
October 17, 2012 - 1 minutes
Electoral forecast

This weekend three different regions in Europe have coincided to bring the discussion of a hypothetical EU internal enlargement by means of the most elementary tool of democracy: voting.

First, local elections in Belgium have been interpreted by the winning party in the Flemish part in regional terms, aiming for the evaporation of Belgium. Second, Cameron and Salmond have signed an agreement by which the United Kingdom and Scotland agree about the question to be asked in the Scottish referendum in 2014. Finally, the Catalan prime minister, in a calculated electoral move, has also mentioned the question that he would like to ask in a referenda in Catalonia if the wins the next Catalan elections to be held in November 25th.

Precisely the following Catalan elections are object of prediction using the “pooling the polls” method. As I did for the Spanish elections in 2011, you can consult all the predictions at forecasting Catalan elections 2012 and subscribe to the blog via RSS in order to get the latest updates.

Bavarian state elections 2018 - Evaluation of the forecasts

Author: Xavier Fernández-i-Marín
October 16, 2018 - 3 minutes
Comparison of the electoral results and forecasts for Bavarian elections 2018
Electoral forecast Bayesian Data visualization

Bavarian state elections 2018 - Forecasting

Author: Xavier Fernández-i-Marín
October 13, 2018 - 9 minutes
Electoral forecast for Bavarian elections 2018
Electoral forecast Bayesian Data visualization ggmcmc

Predicció probabilística pel resultat de la consulta d'independència del 2014 a Catalunya

Author: Xavier Fernández-i-Marín
January 13, 2013 - 7 minutes
Electoral forecast
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